Identification and justification of essential components of social and political situation.

Abstract

Systems analysis is a generally accepted methodology used to study complex social and economic as well as technical systems. Based on essential provisions and methods of systems analysis it has been discovered that composition of elements of social and political situation has to include information 

on studied sphere or process of the state or region. Not only passive reflection of information on events or identification of a certain process, but also trends of situation development and real capabilities of political powers and institutions as well as orientations and capabilities of governing elite are among essential elements of the social and political situation. Thus, to have a systemic assessment of social and political situation in certain state or region there should be analysed its following elements: foreign policy; political situation in region or state; political (military and political) leadership; political norms assessment; analysis of political culture of society; economical situation in the state or region; armed forces state (including capacity to run hybrid wars); social and psychological environment in the society; ethno-confessional situation in the region or state; demographic situation in the region or state; geographic location; ecological situation in the region or state; criminal situation in the region or state. Thus, the need to take into account all above elements of a certain situation of social and political processes leads to understanding the need for analysis, assessment and forecasting of all factors, conditions, events, processes and phenomena that took place, are taking place or will take place in the studied region.

Today the need to forecast the future is determined by both objective realities of the general civilizational development and problems of specific perspective regulation of economic, political, spiritual and military relations. Forecasting has complex interdisciplinary nature formed on the crossroad of political science, sociology, philosophy, psychology, history, economical theory etc. Analysis of contemporary scientific literature devoted to forecasting proves that it is the process shedding light on a certain aspect creating methodological preconditions for further specification of actions.

Thus, the forecasting in the system of social and political process is a probabilistic, stochastic and scientifically justified opinion on perspectives of a certain processes or phenomenon in future and alternative ways and terms of its realization on the basis of objectivity, proportionality as well as alternative, systemic and scientific approaches.

Social and political process always has dynamic nature so it can never be static. To identify the level of social and political situation a comprehensive and deep study of features and patterns of essential elements of social and political situation is required. There are not only actions of social and political process agents but also social and political interests and goals as well as real social and political events, processes and phenomena among structural elements of social and political situation. Their impact on social and political situation will define its level: normal, critical, emergent.

Study and generalization of theoretical approached leads to a conclusion that main goal of social and political situation assessment is the reflection of situation and identification of factors, conditions, events, phenomena that require constant analysis for further impact on social and political processes. It requires realization of the essence of social and political situation assessment as well as its elements that need identification. There should also be defined the sequence of analysis of factors that create social and political situation.

Thus, the comprehensive analysis and assessment of social and political situation provides for identification of factors of development and mutual relation of the agents of social and political process, which have direct or indirect impact on social and political process in the state or separate regions. This is exactly what enables the state administration take actions for stabilization or destabilization of situation both in the international arena or locally.