Political polarization in the Republic of Poland (2023–2026): mechanisms of interaction between government and opposition

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of political polarization in the Republic of Poland during the period of 2023–2026 through the prism of the transformation of relations between the government and the opposition. The study examines the reconfiguration of the Polish political system: the transition from the «monocentric» governance model of the 2015–2023 period to a regime of confrontational cohabitation between the liberal-democratic government of D. Tusk and the national-conservative President K. Nawrocki, who has become the key institutional outpost of the opposition camp. It is identified that post-election interaction acquired a conflictual nature, where the primary mechanisms of opposition influence became the exercise of presidential veto prerogatives and appeals to the Constitutional Tribunal. The genesis of «legal dualism" resulting from the conflict over the status of «neo-judges» and the legitimacy of the National Council of the Judiciary, is investigated. It is substantiated that the transformation of the institution of the presidency into an agent of active institutional opposition and the systematic blocking of government bills constitute a form of asymmetric competition aimed at limiting the executive capacity of D. Tusk’s cabinet. Special attention is paid to the evolution of internal political conflict into a model of pragmatic foreign policy interaction. It is proved that, despite the acute confrontation over judicial issues, personalized competition between D. Tusk and K. Nawrocki on the international stage has transformed into a specific form of synergy, enhancing the multi-vector nature and predictability of Polish diplomacy. The «Poland's Security First» consensus is defined as a strategic safeguard against external destructive influences. The case of the President's participation in the «Peace Council» is analyzed as a mechanism of complex political maneuvering, allowing Poland to maintain high agency and its role as a key partner for Ukraine, despite the internal institutional rift.