Geopolitical dangers of the post-Soviet world order: Z. Brzezinski's assumptions and current trends

Abstract

The article examines how, in his desire to continue the «American century» in Eurasia, Z. Brzezinski soberly assessed the possible threats to American dominance and the new global shifts. The dilemmas facing the American leadership are significantly complicated by the very nature of the current world situation: the direct and global use of military force is now becoming an extremely risky business, as evidenced by the bloody experience of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The last limiter here is nuclear weapons. An additional limiter is the economic interdependence of states, which continues even in times of military clashes. This makes the use of economic blackmail for political purposes unlikely to be successful. The subjects of the «sanctions strategy» who strike at the «object of economic sanctions» also suffer considerable losses. Comparing the geopolitical approach of Z. Brzezinski, especially expressed in his work «Strategic View» with the approach of I. Wallerstein, which is based on the principles of world-system analysis, and with the civilizational approach of S. Huntington, which is most convincingly presented in his work "Clash of Civilizations", we can conclude that despite of these methodologies differences, they all converge at one point - at the point of ascertaining a fundamental change in the world order, the emergence of new trends in world development, the beginning of a phase of acute conflict transformations over a long period of time. This position is also confirmed in the latest studies of a new generation of researchers of the 21st century first quarter. An era of great powers dizzying political «drift» begins with alternating pressing either on the accelerator or on the brakes of military-power policy. A dangerous game of «all against all» begins, the game to become the new «king of the mountain» – a risky multi-turn game... on the verge of foul.