Gray zone mediation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31558/2519-2949.2022.1.1Keywords:
mediation;Abstract
Based on the gray zone concept the potential of mediation as an alternative conflict management and dispute resolution is assessed. Based on color, the "gray zone" metaphor is a conceptual framework for exploring the complex nature of contemporary conflicts, which outwardly resemble a "neither war nor peace" situation. It has been clarified that the gray zone concept, common in Western political science, comes from US intelligence documents and is used to describe conflicts in general, phases of conflict, operational environments or tactics resorted to by participants in various types of conflicts (conventional, hybrid, etc.). To test the hypothesis of the ineffectiveness of mediation in the "gray zone," we chose the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which, although it crossed the threshold of the "black zone" in 2014, remains a fragment of the "gray zone" in relations between Russia and the West. The existence of a "gray zone" in the conflict in Donbass has been proven based on criteria formed by other researchers, mainly concerning the composition of participants and tactics of struggle.
It has been established that the gray zone creates unfavorable conditions for mediation. It shows how participants, and their proxies can use mediation to control the actions of their adversaries and thus fuel the conflict without crossing the threshold of war. The assessment of the potential of mediation in the "grey zone" includes the behavior of the conflict participant (the Russian Federation), which positions itself as a "mediator"; the characteristics of the regional international organization (OSCE) as mediator; the structure (Normandy format, TKG) and mediation tools; the negotiating positions of participants in the negotiation process and the status of implementation the agreements reached on the settlement. It is proved that the resolution of the "grey zone" conflicts depends on bilateral or multilateral negotiations between the "great states" which have sponsored non-state actors responsible for the main grey zone activities at the tactical level.
References
Baques J. Towards a definition of the «gray zone» (GZ) concept. URL: https://www.ieee.es/en/Galerias/ fichero/docs_investig/2017/DIEEEINV02-2017_Concepto_GrayZona_JosepBaques_ENGLISH.pdf (access date: 08.01.2022)
Beckett C. Getting to grips with grey zone conflict. URL: https://stratcommand.blog.gov.uk/2021/04/26/ getting-to-grips-with-grey-zone-conflict/(access date: 27.12.2021)
Carment D., Belo D. Gray-zone conflict management: theory, evidence, and challenges. URL: https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JEMEAA/Display/Article/2213954/gray-zone-conflict-managementtheory-evidence-and-challenges/ (access date: 08.01.2022)
Carment D., Nikolko M., Belo D. Gray zone mediation in the Ukraine crisis comparing Crimea and Donbas. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336458492_Gray_zone_mediation_in_the_Ukraine_crisis_ comparing_ Crimea_and_Donbas (access date: 27.12.2021) DOI:10.4337/9781788110709.00016
Challenges to Mediation Support in Hot Wars Learning from Syria and Ukraine. URL: https://css.ethz.ch/ content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/ MSN_Discussion-Points-7.pdf (access date: 11.01.2021)
Challenging the gray zone: The changing character of warfare and the application of international law. URL: https://archive.law.upenn.edu/institutes/cerl/conferences/greyzone/ (access date: 07.01.2022)
Eastern Ukraine Situation Will Remain Fragile without Means to Calm Mounting Tensions, Under-Secretary-General Tells Security Council. URL: https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14434.doc.htm (access date: 10.01.2022)
Engvall J. OSCE and Military Confidence-Building in Conflict. Lessons from Georgia and Ukraine. URL: https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI-R--4750--SE (access date: 09.01.2022)
Gaining competitive advantage in the gray zone. Response options for coercive aggression below the threshold of major war. URL: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2900/RR2942/RAND_RR2942.pdf (access date: 07.01.2022)
Heidi Tagliavini. Mediation in the Crisis in Eastern Ukraine up to 23 June 2015. URL: https://ifsh.de/file-CORE/ documents/yearbook/english/15/Tagliavini-en.pdf, р.218-219 (access date: 14.10.2021)
Hoffman Fr.J. Examining complex forms of conflict: gray zone and hybrid challenges. URL: https://cco.ndu.edu/news/article/1680696/examining-complex-forms-of-conflict-gray-zone-and-hybrid-challenges/ (access date: 09.01.2022)
Pettyjohn S.L., Wasser B. Competing in the Gray Zone. Russian tactics and Western responses. URL: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2700/RR2791/RAND_RR2791.pdf (access date: 27.12.2021)
Remler Ph.The OSCE as Sisyphys Mediation, Peace Operations, Human Rights. URL: https://www.iai.it/en/ pubblicazioni/osce-sisyphus-mediation-peace-operations-human-rights (access date: 14.10.2021)
Russian troop movements near Ukraine border prompt concern in U.S., Europe. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-troop-movements-near-ukraine-border-prompt-concernin-us-europe/2021/10/30/c122e57c-3983-11ec-9662-399cfa75efee_story.html (access date: 10.01.2022)
Stoker D., Whiteside Cr. Blurred Lines: Gray-Zone Conflict and Hybrid War – Two Failures of American Strategic Thinking. URL: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8092&context=nwc-review (access date: 05.01.2022)
The challenge of inclusiveness in the peace processes in Ukraine. URL: http://eplo.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ PUBLIC-VERSION-CSDN-Background-Paper-The-challenge-of-inclusiveness-in-the-peace-process-in-Ukraine.pdf (access date: 05.01.2022)
The conflict in the Donbas between Gray and Black the importance of perspective. https://nsiteam.com/social/ wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Ukraine-Qualitative-Case-Study-FINAL.pdf (access date:08.01.2022)
Воєнна напруженість між РФ і Україною навесні 2021 року. URL: https://niss.gov.ua/news/statti/ voyenna-napruzhenist-mizh-rf-i-ukrayinoyu-navesni-2021-roku (дата звернення: 07.01.2022)
Данилов назвав заяви про стягування військ Росії до кордонів України «свідомою дезінформацією». URL: https://detector.media/infospace/article/193426/2021-11-02-danilov-nazvav-zayavy-pro-styaguvannyaviysk-rosii-do-kordonu-ukrainy-svidomoyu-dezinformatsiieyu/ (дата звернення: 07.01.2022)
Делегація України у ТКГ: Спостерігачів ОБСЄ де-факто захопили у заручники. URL: https://www.dw.com/uk/delehatsiia-ukrainy-v-tkh-sposterihachiv-obsie-de-fakto-zakhopyly-v-zaruchnyky/ a-59537819 (дата звернення: 07.01.2022)
Договор между Российской Федерацией и Соединенными Штатами Америки о гарантиях безопасности. URL: https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/(дата звернення: 08.01.2022)
Загальні узгоджені висновки Паризького саміту в Нормандському форматі 9 грудня 2019 р. URL: https://www.president.gov.ua/news/zagalni-uzgodzheni-visnovki-parizkogo-samitu-v-normandskomu-58797 (дата звернення: 08.01.2022)
Козак: Россия встанет на защиту своих граждан в случае войны в Донбассе. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4762951(дата звернення: 08.01.2022)
Расширенное заседание коллегии МИД РФ от 18 ноября 2021 г. URL: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67123 (дата звернення: 08.01.2022)
Соглашения о мерах обеспечения безопасности между Российской Федерацией и государств-членов Организации Североатлантического договора. URL: https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/ (дата звернення: 08.01.2022)
Сообщение для печати Специального представителя Действующего председателя ОБСЕ в Украине Хайди Грау после очередной встречи ТКГ 23 июня 2021 г. https://www.osce.org/ru/chairmanship/490802 (дата звернення: 16.07.2021)
