The source base for constructing a model for predicting an international migration flows in the first half of the XXI.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the source base, which could be used as a basis for the prognostic simulation of modern international migration flows. The basic methodological principles on which the modern models of migration flows are based are determined. It is proved that the majority of existing models of migration flows are oriented towards an increasingly detailed determination of factors of migration movements. This approach allows to build a very detailed model of migration. It is pointed out that the important disadvantage of such models is the necessity to attract very detailed, diverse data. Such demand dramatically reduces parameterization capabilities of these models and, most importantly, makes an impossible medium term and long term forecasting by such models. It is indicated as critically go down an opportunities to attract the required number of sources to construct forecasts by such models. In the article the necessity of simulation building from the standpoint of synergetic approach is drawn. It is stated, that according to synergetic approach a content of such dissipative process as the process of international migration, determines, ultimately, by a certain order parameter. This approach to modeling migration flows defines a different approach to the source base of simulation, indicates that the main data model construction are data on current migration potential and forecasted data on population growth. Two sets of statistical data are provided that provide regular and lacuna-free information on the current state of migratory flows. These are World Bank data and data from the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. It has been determined that the United Nations Population Division data is characterized by greater completeness and stability. It is substantiated that in simulation it can be used data only for those 118 countries whose population exceeds 5 million people. Several assumptions about the possibilities of eliminating the difference in international migrants’ account in available country-level data are identified.