Research of Party System through the Prism of Quantitative Methodology.

Abstract

The emphasis in the article has been put on the appropriateness of the use of quantitative methodology in political science. There have been presented the numerous arguments of the interpretive potential of mathematical formulas for explanation of political processes, and particularly in the spectrum of comparison and evolution. An obvious historical pattern between the increase of popularity of the use of quantitative methodology in political science has been determined, for instance, during the period of Chicago school, behaviorism or in 1970th, when the scientists proposed the main numerical indexes for the analysis of political realities on the one hand, and the numbers of political publications on the other hand. The author has drawn an analogy with the peaks of scientific activeness and the speed of introducing quantitative indicators for evaluation, in particular, the party sphere. Detailed analysis of the basic numerical indexes, helping to describe the state, configuration and evolutional aspect of party systems, has been executed. This primarily is an effective number of parties’ index, which gives an idea about the competitive number of political parties in the country, and as a consequence about the fragmentation of party systems and the comparative dynamics of its development. The indexes of fragmentation and polarization, which allow drawing a conclusion on the stability and solidity of the parliamentary coalitions, and therefore the cohesion of the entire political system, have been determined. The index of electoral volatility, which demonstrates the electoral preferences of the population and their variability have been additionally considered. Although it is rather difficult to talk about the vector of cause-effect relations and the level of correlation between the variability of electoral preferences and changes in the party system, but the evaluation of the party system in the range of stability / instability requires consideration of this indicator. The newer indexes, which are more often used for evaluation of the level of institutionalization of parties and party systems, and the indicators of stability / changeability of the party system, have been referred to. The main focus has been drawn to the government-level research, and namely to the three main components such as the frequency of changes in governments, rules (formula) of their conduction, and the conditions of access for the purpose of a potential alternative. The author concludes that modern political science is incomplete without the use of quantitative methodology, which in turn is impossible without a quantitative interpretation of the received numerical indicators.