Political forecasting as an epistemic practice: methodological limitations and groupthink in western expert communities (the case of the 2022 russian invasion of Ukraine)

Abstract

This article examines the methodological limitations of political forecasting associated with analysts’ membership in epistemic communities. It argues that the analytical failure of the Western expert community in forecasting the consequences of the 2022 Russian invasion resulted primarily from organizational processes within the expert community. In particular, the article focuses on the phenomenon of groupthink, which has largely remained outside the disciplinary reflection of political forecasting scholarship. The article advances several key conclusions. First, dominant theories of political forecasting are almost entirely focused on what may be termed praedictor singularis (the individual forecaster). Their primary concern lies with the cognitive capacities and analytical practices of individual researchers. Second, in practice, forecasts are rarely produced by isolated individuals; rather, they are generated by groups of experts, each possessing its own incentives, norms, and hierarchies. Consequently, models of political forecasting should move from praedictor singularis to praedictor collectivus, in which the relevant unit of analysis is the expert group rather than the individual analyst. Third, these collective mechanisms and processes can systematically undermine the advantages of even the most sophisticated forecasting methods. Fourth, epistemic communities, often formed around shared political views or common policy objectives, constitute an expert environment particularly vulnerable to the effects of groupthink. Fifth, the methodological limitations of political forecasting are shaped primarily by the socio-political organization of expert knowledge rather than by formal models or analysts’ cognitive abilities. Thus, the primary unit of analysis should not be the individual forecaster but the epistemic community, since its organizational characteristics can systematically generate effects structurally analogous to groupthink. This constitutes the principal avenue for improving forecasting quality.