Cognitive Biases in International Politics as a Factor of Political Dynamics

Abstract

This article examines cognitive biases as one of the key yet insufficiently recognized factors in international political dynamics. The modern international political system is built on the assumption that actors will behave predictably within the framework of formalized procedures and strategies. However, real political behavior often deviates from these expectations due to the influence of emotions, cognitive biases, and distorted perceptions. As a result, a system designed to ensure stability becomes vulnerable to failure precisely when actors' behavior exceeds the limits of anticipated scenarios. The hypothesis of the study suggests that cognitive biases are not random errors but systematic features of human thinking that significantly influence threat perception, political strategy choices, and prospects for peaceful conflict resolution. While behavioral approaches have gained recognition in economics thanks to the work of D. Kahneman & A. Tversky, and their followers, these mechanisms remain underexplored in political science. The author proposes a classification of cognitive biases, grouping them into five categories: biases related to information processing and thinking; biases driven by emotional processing; biases in decision-making and action; social and intergroup biases; and biases related to memory and time perception. For each group, the article analyzes their influence on political thinking and behavior, illustrated by real political cases. The study concludes that cognitive biases are not merely psychological traits of individual thinking but systematic factors influencing collective political processes at both national and international levels. Ignoring these biases in analytical models reduces the ability to explain and predict the behavior of political actors in crisis situations, thereby limiting the effectiveness of traditional approaches in international politics. The article highlights the promise of advancing behavioral approaches in political science to develop more realistic and effective strategies in an increasingly uncertain and behaviorally complex world.