Ukraine, GUAM and the USA: expectations that have not been fulfilled

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of more than 25 years of activities and problems of the Organisation for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM (ODED – GUAM) in the context of the expectations that Ukraine and the United States of America had for it. It is noted that in the stages of creation and institutionalisation of the Group of Four, from 1997 to the mid-2000s, it enjoyed American political and economic support. Washington’s approach to GUAM was determined by the fact that the Quartet’s goals largely coincided with US geopolitical interests in the post-Soviet space and the Black Sea-Caspian region. These common goals include countering Russian integration projects in the region, supporting geopolitical pluralism in post-Soviet Eurasia, strengthening the economic and energy independence of these countries from Russia, creating transport and energy routes bypassing Russia, and restoring the territorial integrity of the member states. During the Bush administration, the United States, as an extra-regional actor, was interested in weakening Russia’s political influence in the post-Soviet space. Promoting the creation of Caspian oil supply routes to Europe and regional integration without Russian involvement were seen as the best means of removing the GUAM member states from Moscow’s sphere of influence. With the coming to power of the administration B. Obama, the US interest in GUAM, as well as in the entire post-Soviet region, has significantly declined, which has affected Washington’s support for it. At the same time, as a result
of the change of ruling elites in the GUAM member states, the new leaders (V. Yanukovich, V. Voronin, B. Ivanishvili) turned out to be supporters of either pro-Russian orientation or multivectorism, which led to a decline in the activities of this regional organisation. In 2009-2016, GUAM’s activities were effectively put on hold, leading to a capacity crisis within the organisation. Kyiv’s attempts to intensify its activities together with Baku in 2017-2020 will ultimately look like certain outbursts, political impulses that failed to overcome the differences in the foreign policy vectors of the member states and the crisis of GUAM’s capacity. The Trump administration, whose foreign policy was marked by contradictions and chaos, also paid little attention to the post-Soviet space. Seeing no practical interest for itself, the United States curtailed its political engagement with GUAM during this period. At this stage, ODED-GUAM does not function as an integration association, but rather as a regional platform for promoting its own trade and economic relations and realising the transit potential of its member states. Another common interest of the Quartet is the coordination of positions on the issue of territorial integrity of countries on international platforms. Two key GUAM initiatives – the creation of a free trade zone and a transport corridor – despite having an appropriate legal framework, still lack practical implementation mechanisms.