Possible scenarios for the development of territorial communities in the post-war period

Abstract

The article analyzes possible scenarios for the development of territorial communities in Ukraine during the post-war period, depending on the conditions of conflict resolution. Four scenarios for ending the conflict are examined: resolution through mutual reconciliation, symmetrical resolution, asymmetrical resolution with Ukraine’s victory, and gradual de-escalation of the conflict. The article outlines the main features, challenges, and recovery prospects for both de-occupied and rear communities. The analysis of possible conflict resolution scenarios demonstrates that the development of territorial communities in the post-war period will depend on the conditions of conflict resolution. De-occupied communities will face challenges related to infrastructure restoration, population reintegration, ensuring security, and overcoming the consequences of occupation. Rear communities, in turn, will face the challenge of adapting to changes in the socio-economic structure caused by displacement flows and new roles in the national logistics system. The effectiveness of recovery depends on a comprehensive approach to planning and implementation processes. The development scenario for each community should take into account its unique needs, infrastructure conditions, demographic potential, and the specific impact of the war. International support plays a critically important role in recovery processes. It is noted that the successful implementation of projects in de-occupied communities is possible under conditions of creating transparent mechanisms for resource utilization, clearly defining priorities, and involving local communities in the planning process. Particular attention is given to the need for forming transparent resource allocation mechanisms, integrating scenario planning into state regional policy, and developing long-term comprehensive recovery programs for communities. Key directions for further research are proposed, aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of communities and addressing the unique needs of each region in post-war recovery conditions.